Thursday, January 31, 2008

Cost of transportation is rising

Introduction
In my small island nation Singapore, the transport cost is rising year after year.
Certificate of Entitlement (COE) to own a vehicle tries to limit the number of vehicle in the country. COE targets correctly on one of the cause, the number of vehicles on road. However, for this to work require slowing down the success of a goal of the government, which is the growth in wealth of the people ... but how could growth in wealth be slowed down? .

Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) of using certain common roads initially to limit the number of vehicles in congested areas such as the central business district (CBD), but now it is to limit the amount of traffic on these roads. Theses roads were mainly some major expressways, but now it also include roads in residential town, such as Lorong 6 Toa Payoh.

Public transportation fares have been a strictly increasing curve, always ignoring any drop in petrol prices or any other running costs.

Taxi fares continues to increase even after the increase of taxis operators and number of taxis on the road.

Problems
The number of vehicles in the country is still increasing at maximum rate set by the authority. CBD is still congested. Major expressways have daily traffic jams. Having ERP on Lorong 6 Toa Payoh will not reduce but just spread the traffic volume into Marymount road, Thomson road and Upper Serangoon roads. MRT is getting more cramp day after day. Taxis still run around yet hard to fetch at some location during some periods.

Solutions
None yet.

My views
First of all, is it a problem? Yes, the cost is rising, but how high is it when compared to other cities. We shouldn't compare to the old Singapore. I am not talking the time when policemen ware khaki shorts, but even just 5 to 10 years ago. We should compare to other cities at the similar developed level as here.

Secondly, how should this problem be solved? The overall way is to improve the traffic situation, so that it is cheaper to own a car, if one choose to, and it is worth it to take public transport, which is encouraged by the authorities. Has anyone look into the need for travel?

I suggest moving from the mentality of Gun (鲧) to that of Yu (禹), as in the story of Yu the Great Conquered the Flood (大禹治水). The former tried blocking while the latter used channeling. ERP is not the ultimate solution. It can temporarily reduce, or redistribute the traffic volume. However, eventually the traffic jam will return. Nevertheless, ERP is a good way to get revenue for the government, just as damps help to gather energy from the ever flowing water.

The recent announcement of 2 new Thomson and Eastern Region lines is a channeling way. Probably the ERP is needed to gather enough revenue (or problems) to support building these new MRT lines :) Further searches led me to this image, but I not sure how true it is. Anyway, that's a good direction to head towards.

Other than the dimension of space, there is the dimension of time. The concept of peak hours need to be re-considered. How can the unused traffic capacity during non-peak hours be better utilized to help shoulder the burden during peak hours? I believe many office hour jobs can be rescheduled slightly to avoid the peak hours.

Next, also considering the need to travel. This, I think is a more causal factor than the number of vehicles. The rise in transport cost might actually reduce the want to travel. However, that's bad as it make people feel poorer and less happy, just like what the COE have been doing. Imagine how demoralizing it is to reduce the number of family outing trips due to cost. How about the need to travel? On the other hand, wouldn't it be nice to reduce the number of days that need to travel to work? Or at least, travel at a non-peak time.

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